Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 198.114006 237.116349 284.237754 346.140453 426.497449 528.961958 6.722992e+02
2025-08-31 146.305965 189.924922 248.699504 336.119240 467.313454 664.867920 1.002066e+03
2025-09-07 127.652838 176.311209 247.717636 365.329841 565.526948 917.271785 1.651262e+03
2025-09-14 109.687446 158.285536 234.125804 368.948451 622.237914 1128.031180 2.392353e+03
2025-09-21 98.176391 147.086238 227.598995 380.852339 696.454052 1410.848319 3.572464e+03
2025-09-28 87.127718 134.363978 215.435067 378.446863 740.717087 1655.212468 4.965686e+03
2025-10-05 83.050975 132.387036 221.256024 411.972357 877.418551 2230.135133 8.537247e+03
2025-10-12 78.697400 129.088766 223.783213 439.247461 1013.026945 2928.895341 1.472184e+04
2025-10-19 74.155196 124.672035 223.165946 459.269117 1140.633852 3744.757762 2.546786e+04
2025-10-26 69.481028 119.290371 219.532017 471.075230 1251.768707 4645.793360 4.398595e+04
2025-11-02 64.716461 113.075106 213.031214 473.896190 1337.125128 5565.482829 7.497737e+04
2025-11-09 59.579725 105.490096 202.336311 462.868943 1369.838761 6272.483493 1.179535e+05
2025-11-16 54.721885 98.133520 191.530012 450.362555 1398.277734 7075.547193 1.982095e+05
2025-11-23 50.395788 91.418602 181.261218 437.107875 1419.470584 7918.998968 3.485448e+05
2025-11-30 49.655796 92.131587 188.496806 478.375135 1706.151938 11827.697824 2.014847e+06
2025-12-07 47.026484 88.458804 184.513259 483.521097 1832.739302 14790.928896 1.124735e+07
2025-12-14 45.196520 86.332363 184.054105 500.404393 2038.203507 19935.998173 1.117882e+09
2025-12-21 42.648858 82.323326 178.163535 496.989990 2131.344752 24151.145896 NaN
2025-12-28 42.329517 83.355868 185.701551 544.788186 2593.701114 40729.213683 NaN
2026-01-04 41.587034 83.311425 190.341965 583.983091 3063.244435 67751.940452 NaN
2026-01-11 40.494461 82.306931 192.139800 612.924124 3509.383670 110240.278593 NaN
2026-01-18 39.105411 80.433776 191.143154 630.055248 3892.993339 172645.804359 NaN
2026-01-25 37.462262 77.772364 187.428010 634.155663 4170.793299 253921.007326 NaN